I confirmed the lead update caused the trigger to fire. It should not have. I am going to test to find out why. In the mean time I changed your rule to only fire when these forms are filled out: https://www.screencast.com/t/eJSKCq9mrj
I checked and discovered there are still issues with the new Lead Creation Event. It’s treating the first save as a new lead event, but not later saves.
I wrote in a protection to prevent this and am shipping it in the next release. I already updated your files. I remember why this was so hard to do in the first place. Hopefully it’s pinned down.